# Table 1: Demographics and Interest Rate Levels

| Variable | real_bond_10y (OECD*) | real_short_3m (OECD*) | real_policy_rate (Full) | real_policy_rate (OECD) | term_spread (OECD*) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z_1 | 43.724** (18.010) | 60.075*** (20.984) | 14.355 (14.222) | 8.984 (35.067) | -10.654 (11.553) |
| Z_2 | -4.631* (2.374) | -7.013** (2.784) | -2.124 (2.108) | -2.045 (4.737) | 1.479 (1.531) |
| Z_3 | 0.135 (0.088) | 0.226** (0.104) | 0.084 (0.085) | 0.099 (0.178) | -0.055 (0.057) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.033*** (0.012) | -0.060*** (0.018) | 0.089*** (0.031) | 0.254** (0.114) | 0.014 (0.016) |
| inflation | -0.775*** (0.023) | -0.678*** (0.032) | -0.701*** (0.015) | -0.031 (0.062) | -0.046* (0.028) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.032* (0.018) | 0.073*** (0.026) | -0.042 (0.040) | -0.022 (0.084) | -0.059*** (0.020) |
| kaopen | -1.103*** (0.191) | -1.589*** (0.233) | -0.947*** (0.206) | -0.773* (0.426) | 0.212 (0.170) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.249 (0.316) | -0.703* (0.400) | -0.291 (0.235) | -0.161 (0.544) | -0.355 (0.227) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R² | 0.108 | 0.005 | 0.380 | 0.029 | 0.113 |
| N obs | 803 | 813 | 1,620 | 500 | 781 |
| N countries | 23 | 23 | 76 | 19 | 23 |

*OECD\* indicates bond yield data is available only for OECD economies; full-sample and OECD results are identical, so a single column is reported.*